Paul Jarvis, in his book Company of One, opens with a provocative question: why do we equate success with perpetual growth? He cites Ricardo Semler, CEO of Semco Partners, who quips that “growing bigger” is less of a strategy and more of a desire If Oxford University excels with one campus, why isn’t it expanding to Washington, D.C.? If a symphony thrives with 120 musicians, why not bloat it to 600?
This perspective pushes us to rethink growth in Africa—not as an automatic goal, but as a means to build resilient institutions, empower people, and sustain development. The pursuit of growth for its own sake can mask inefficiency and mediocrity, often leaving little room for lasting progress.
Over the past two decades, many African nations have topped global growth charts, boasting impressive GDP gains. Yet for much of the population, the benefits remain elusive. Rising GDP has not consistently translated into widespread skills development or inclusive opportunities, leaving large segments of society behind.
Policy and development leaders have long championed growth-first strategies, prioritizing GDP and grand infrastructure as markers of success. However, these metrics tell an incomplete story. Economic growth without strong institutions, equitable systems, or investments in human capital is like a house built on sand—impressive but unstable.
As Semler notes, “getting bigger” is different from getting better. For Africa, success lies in creating a foundation of resilience, capacity, and sustainability before scaling up. By focusing on institutional strength and human capital development, growth can become not just larger but more meaningful.
The Mirage of Perpetual Growth
The allure of “bigger” is understandable. Mega-projects and GDP growth charts are tangible and impressive, providing easy metrics of progress. They can rally political support, attract investors, and give the impression of a nation on the rise. Yet, this focus on sheer scale often overshadows the realities of implementation. When growth outpaces the institutions meant to guide and sustain it, the results can be disastrous—inefficient use of resources, mounting debt, stalled projects, and a cycle of underachievement that undermines true development.
At the heart of this mirage is the assumption that “more” automatically means “better.” But without robust governance, transparency, and public accountability, mega-projects risk becoming expensive showpieces, disconnected from the needs of local communities. High GDP growth, meanwhile, can hide deep social and economic inequalities when there are no frameworks in place to translate statistical gains into tangible improvements in healthcare, education, or job opportunities.
In this sense, the drive for perpetual expansion can serve as a smoke screen for unresolved systemic issues. When new highways are built without plans for maintenance, or schools are constructed without qualified teachers, the temporary glow of “progress” fades quickly. True development requires matching ambition with the institutional capacity to execute and sustain that ambition. Otherwise, the promise of growth remains just that—a promise—and the people it is meant to serve are left behind.
In many cases, the growth that dazzles on paper falters when it meets weak oversight. One of the clearest examples is in large-scale infrastructure projects, where ambitious visions often outstrip administrative capacity.
Infrastructure Without Governance
Africa’s infrastructure boom has spurred growth, with roads, railways, and power plants reshaping landscapes. But without strong governance, this progress is as fragile as a skyscraper built on sand—impressive yet dangerously unstable.
Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway launched in 2017 at a cost of $3.6 billion, was meant to revolutionize regional trade. Yet the railway struggles to generate sufficient revenue to cover its operating costs. The absence of robust market integration and operational oversight has limited its impact, leaving Kenya burdened with significant debt.
The shortcomings of infrastructure expansion reveal the pitfalls of building without planning; the same risks emerge in education, where access alone can mask deep flaws in quality.
Education Without Learning
Efforts to expand access to education have transformed opportunities for millions of African children. But focusing on enrollment without addressing quality creates a façade of progress.
Nigeria’s Universal Basic Education program increased school enrollment dramatically, reflecting a commendable push toward inclusivity (Global Partnership for Education). However, over 80% of Nigerian grade 4 students cannot read fluently, highlighting systemic failure. Institutions responsible for teacher training, curriculum development, and accountability have lagged behind, leaving classrooms full but students unprepared.
Just as classrooms can be filled without actual learning, ambitious projects can be funded without sustainable financial frameworks. Debt, too, can pose its own threats to development when oversight is lacking.
Debt Without Sustainability
International borrowing has financed much of Africa’s growth, with institutions like the World Bank and African Development Bank encouraging large-scale investments. But weak financial oversight and corruption have led to unsustainable debt burdens for many countries.
Ethiopia’s industrial parks were envisioned as engines of export-led growth. While facilities like Hawassa Industrial Park have delivered jobs and boosted exports, others remain underutilized, adding to Ethiopia’s mounting debt. Weak market integration and ineffective resource allocation have undermined their potential, illustrating how growth-first strategies can backfire without strong institutional frameworks. Weak economic management is only one symptom of fragile governance.
To truly transform economic gains into long-term progress, strong institutions must come first.
Why Institutions Must Come First
Institutions are not merely bureaucratic entities — they are the mechanisms through which societies function. They ensure accountability, fairness, and efficiency, translating ambition into tangible and lasting results. Without institutions, even the grandest visions risk becoming hollow promises.
Good governance is not just an ideal — it is the backbone of every successful development story. Governance determines how resources are allocated, how disputes are resolved, and how trust is built between governments, citizens, and investors. Where governance thrives, growth follows; where it fails, progress is undermined.
Economy and Business. Emerging from the devastation of the 1994 genocide, Rwanda tackled corruption, streamlined public administration, and fostered a business-friendly environment. Today, it ranks among the top African countries for ease of doing business, attracting foreign investment, and fostering inclusive growth. These achievements are rooted in institutional resilience.
Governance sets the tone for every sector, including the management of natural resources. Where oversight is missing, resource wealth often translates into conflict rather than prosperity.
Turning Resources into Resilience
Africa is home to 30% of the world’s mineral resources, yet many resource-rich nations remain economically fragile. The “resource curse”—where wealth fuels corruption, inequality, and conflict—is a recurring theme. Why? Because institutions to ensure transparent management of these resources are often weak or absent.
Botswana’s diamond industry provides a counter-narrative. By establishing transparent partnerships with private companies and implementing rigorous regulatory oversight, Botswana has leveraged its diamond wealth to drive development. Revenue from diamonds has been reinvested into healthcare, education, and infrastructure, creating broad-based benefits for its citizens.
Beyond natural riches, Africa’s most valuable resource is its people. Strong institutions in resource management pave the way for investments in human capital—fueling sustainable growth.
Human Capital: The True Wealth of Nations
Africa’s greatest asset is its people. With a young and rapidly growing population, the continent has the potential to become a global hub for innovation, labor, and consumption. Unlocking this potential requires investment in human capital through education and healthcare—systems that are only as strong as the institutions overseeing them.
Ghana’s National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) is a standout example of institutional innovation in healthcare (Ministry of Health, Ghana). By balancing government oversight with community participation, the NHIS has improved access to healthcare for millions. Strong institutional leadership has allowed the scheme to evolve, addressing challenges and ensuring financial sustainability.
Enhancing human capital is critical, but measuring its impact requires looking past raw GDP figures. By embracing broader metrics, Africa can capture the true extent of its social and economic progress.
Rethinking Metrics: Beyond GDP
GDP dominates discussions of economic progress, but its limitations are well-documented. A rising GDP can mask deep inequalities, environmental degradation, or systemic inefficiencies that undermine long-term progress. To capture the nuances of development, Africa must embrace new metrics that prioritize the quality of growth over its size:
- Human Capital Index (World Bank): Measures the potential productivity of the next generation, considering factors like health, education, and survival rates.
- Ease of Doing Business (World Bank Rankings):: Assesses the regulatory environment and how conducive it is for entrepreneurship and investment.
- Environmental Performance Index (Yale University)Evaluates environmental health and ecosystem vitality, highlighting sustainability efforts.
- World Governance Indicators (World Bank): Tracks six key dimensions of governance—including government effectiveness, rule of law, and corruption control—that are crucial for stable and equitable economic growth.
- Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International): Gauges perceived levels of public sector corruption worldwide, influencing investor confidence and institutional integrity.
Together, these metrics provide a fuller picture of development, shifting the focus from mere size to meaningful outcomes. By looking at human capital, institutional health, governance frameworks, and environmental stewardship, nations can chart a path toward growth that is both sustainable and inclusive.
Conclusion – Beyond Bigger: Building Sustainable Progress
Africa’s potential is limitless, but its path to prosperity depends on the strength of its institutions. These institutions turn fleeting gains into enduring legacies, ensuring that growth is not only large but also meaningful. It is time to move beyond the illusion of perpetual expansion and focus on building the foundations of sustainable progress.
The question is not whether Africa can grow, it is how well it can grow. And the answer begins with institutions and governance. By nurturing robust oversight, equitable frameworks, and transparent policies, African nations can transform raw potential into lasting development, ensuring that “bigger” does not come at the expense of “better.”
Join the conversation using #BetterBeforeBigger or share your thoughts on how African nations can strengthen their institutions to create lasting, inclusive growth.
