Development Perspectives UK

Trump’s 100% Tariff Threat: A Risky Gamble Against BRICS and Africa

A Trade War in the Making?

Donald Trump has returned to the presidency of the United States with a renewed focus on aggressive trade policies and economic nationalism. His latest target? BRICS, the rapidly expanding coalition of emerging economies. He has threatened a 100% tariff on BRICS nations if they move forward with plans to introduce a new currency that could challenge the U.S. dollar’s dominance.

For a leader who once declared that “trade wars are good, and easy to win” (Wikipedia), this may be his boldest gamble yet. But the world has changed since his first presidency. BRICS is no longer just a collection of emerging markets—it has become an economic powerhouse. With ten full members and nine partner states, it is increasingly seen as a viable alternative to Western-led financial institutions.

If Trump follows through, will BRICS nations back down under U.S. pressure, or will Washington find itself confronting a more unified and economically independent BRICS-Africa alliance?

BRICS: An Expanding Economic Powerhouse

What began in 2009 as a coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa has rapidly grown into a significant global alliance. Originally focused on economic cooperation among emerging markets, BRICS has evolved into a strategic bloc that is reshaping international trade and finance.

In January 2025, BRICS expanded by admitting Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE as full members (Reuters). This move strengthens the bloc’s influence, particularly in energy markets, infrastructure development, and global trade networks. Additionally, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and six other nations have joined as partner states, further broadening BRICS’ global reach.

The BRICS Bloc in Numbers

  • GDP (PPP-adjusted): $58 trillion—exceeding the G7’s combined total (IMF).
  • Population: 4.5 billion, about half of the world’s people.
  • Global Trade Share: More than 35% of total world trade, up from 15% in 2000 (UNCTAD).
  • Strategic Resources: BRICS nations control 60% of global oil reserves, 40% of natural gas, and 70% of rare earth minerals (Statista).

This expansion signals a growing shift in global economic power. With major energy producers and industrial economies now part of BRICS, the bloc is becoming a stronger alternative to Western-led financial systems. Its efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and strengthen intra-BRICS trade and investment are precisely what has drawn Washington’s attention.

Will Trump’s Tariffs Work? A Reality Check

Despite the tough rhetoric from Washington, BRICS nations do not depend on the U.S. for trade as much as some might think.

Trade Flows: BRICS vs. U.S. and China

CountryTrade with U.S. (2024, est.)Trade with China
Brazil$95 billion (USITC)$150 billion (Xinhua)
Russia<$10 billion (due to sanctions)$190 billion (SCMP)
India$120 billion (Ministry of Commerce, India)$135 billion (China Customs)
China$758 billion (U.S. Census Bureau)
South Africa$15 billion (South African Revenue Service)$65 billion (CGTN)
Nigeria$10 billion (USITC)$25 billion (African Union)

While the U.S. remains an important market, BRICS nations already conduct most of their trade with each other. A tariff war would push them further toward self-sufficiency, accelerating intra-BRICS trade and reinforcing economic independence from the West.

Africa’s Position: Why It Won’t Feel the Squeeze

Africa’s trade landscape has shifted dramatically over the past two decades, with BRICS nations—particularly China and India—now the continent’s dominant economic partners. While the U.S. remains a key player, its overall trade volume with Africa is relatively small.

Africa’s total trade with the U.S. stands at just $88 billion, compared to over $250 billion in annual trade with China (Brookings). Even if Trump’s tariffs disrupt BRICS-U.S. trade, Africa has ample alternative markets to absorb the impact. Deepening ties with China, India, and other BRICS members ensure that Africa’s economic growth remains largely independent of U.S. policies.

However, the tariffs could hit American industries reliant on African exports. The U.S. depends on critical minerals like cobalt and lithium—essential for EV batteries and high-tech manufacturing. Sectors like agriculture and energy could also face disruptions if BRICS nations shift trade and investment away from the U.S.

Africa’s Critical Minerals and U.S. Dependence

MineralKey African SuppliersU.S. Dependence
CobaltDemocratic Republic of Congo (70% of global supply) (USGS)Critical for EV batteries & aerospace
LithiumZimbabwe, NamibiaEssential for battery technology
ManganeseSouth Africa, GabonUsed in steel & battery production
Platinum Group MetalsSouth Africa (over 75% of global supply)Vital for automotive & hydrogen fuel cells
GraphiteMozambique, MadagascarKey component in battery anodes
UraniumNamibia, Niger (World Nuclear Association)Moderate—U.S. primarily imports from Canada & Kazakhstan, but African supply is strategic

Rather than pressuring African economies, these tariffs may accelerate their pivot toward BRICS, reinforcing trade relationships that have been expanding for years. If BRICS nations prioritize intra-bloc trade, the U.S. could find itself struggling to secure vital materials for its energy and technology sectors.

The Real Risk: America’s Dependence on BRICS Resources

While the U.S. is using tariffs as economic leverage, BRICS holds the real power in global supply chains, particularly in critical resources essential for energy, technology, and defense. From rare earth elements to oil and agricultural commodities, BRICS nations control key global exports that could be used as countermeasures if trade tensions escalate.

ResourceKey BRICS/African SuppliersImpact on the U.S.
Rare EarthsChina (70% of global processing) (USGS)Disrupts tech & defense industries
CobaltDRC (70% of global supply)Affects EV & battery production
Nickel & LithiumBrazil, Russia, South AfricaCritical for semiconductors & batteries
Oil & GasSaudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Russia (OPEC)Raises U.S. energy costs & weakens sanctions power
Wheat & RiceBrazil, Russia, India (FAO)Increases U.S. food prices & inflation

Key Risks for the U.S.:

  • Minerals & Rare Earths: China dominates rare earth processing, while Africa supplies most of the world’s cobalt. If BRICS restricts these exports, U.S. tech and defense industries could face major disruptions.
  • Oil & Gas: With BRICS+ controlling a majority of global oil exports, a shift to pricing oil in non-dollar currencies could reduce global demand for the U.S. dollar, weakening Washington’s financial influence.
  • Food Security: BRICS nations are leading exporters of wheat, rice, and soybeans. If they prioritize internal trade or reduce dollar-based transactions, it could disrupt U.S. food supply chains and increase inflation.

If BRICS strategically limits exports of critical resources, the U.S. economy could feel the squeeze far more than BRICS nations themselves. Tariffs may disrupt trade, but they cannot counteract BRICS’ structural advantage in controlling essential commodities, making this an asymmetric battle that may not favor Washington.

Is This the Beginning of the End for Dollar Dominance?

Trump’s tariffs aim to preserve the dollar’s dominance, but they may accelerate de-dollarization instead.

For decades, the dollar’s global reserve status has given the U.S. economic leverage, allowing it to influence markets, enforce sanctions, and shape monetary policy. However, BRICS and other emerging economies are actively reducing their reliance on the dollar, a trend now gaining momentum.

  • China and Russia conduct over 80% of their trade in non-dollar currencies (RBC). Since Western sanctions, Russia has shifted nearly all trade with China to rubles and yuan, weakening the dollar’s role in global commerce.
  • India is buying Russian oil in rupees and UAE dirhams (Economic Times), setting a precedent for others to bypass the petrodollar system.
  • BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB) issues loans in local currencies (NDB), reducing reliance on Western institutions like the IMF and World Bank.

If Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Russia begin pricing oil in yuan, rupees, or a BRICS-backed currency, demand for the U.S. dollar could decline, making it harder for Washington to finance deficits and exert financial influence.

Instead of halting de-dollarization, Trump’s tariffs may accelerate it, pushing BRICS toward greater financial independence and diminishing U.S. economic leverage.

Final Verdict: A High-Stakes Gamble for the U.S.

Trump’s tariff strategy reflects his longstanding commitment to economic nationalism, a stance that resonates with his domestic base. However, on the global stage, it risks unintended consequences. Rather than forcing BRICS to comply, tariffs may strengthen the bloc’s resolve to build independent trade and financial systems, reducing their vulnerability to U.S. economic pressure.

BRICS nations are less reliant on the U.S. than ever, and these tariffs could push them further toward self-sufficiency. If Washington’s goal is to maintain economic leadership, isolating itself from the world’s fastest-growing economies may be counterproductive.

As BRICS expands trade networks, reduces dollar dependence, and attracts new partners, the U.S. risks losing its grip on global economic policy. Will Trump adjust course, or are these tariffs the start of a deeper economic divide?

What do you think? Will Trump’s tariff threats succeed, or is this a losing battle? Share your thoughts below!

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